Supply fears start to hit Treasuries

I have two problems with this scenario.

1. When everybody knows about a problem, it doesn't happen.
2. When everybody understands a problem, it gets solved fast.

I'm betting on 2.

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

The bond vigilantes are finally flexing their muscles. A long period of stability for the US government bond market showed signs of cracking this week as a lack of investor appetite for new debt sent the benchmark 10-year yield to its highest level since last June.

For more than a year, analysts have been warning that record sized debt sales by the US Treasury were at odds with a 10-year yield sitting comfortably below 4 per cent. This week, the yield on 10-year notes jumped from 3.65 per cent to a peak of 3.92 per cent on Thursday. On Friday it was 3.87 per cent.

Chart: TreasuriesFalling inflation, rising unemployment, the housing market slump, the Federal Reserve's policies of a near zero overnight borrowing rate and its purchase of up to $1,700bn in bonds have all helped keep Treasury yields near historic lows.

But this week the mood shifted as yields for $118bn of new US debt were much higher than forecast, sparking overall selling of Treasuries. Sentiment also deteriorated in the UK bond market after the government's budget ahead of a general election expected in May failed to resolve doubts over future spending and debt reduction.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c51fbbce-3908-11df-8970-00144feabdc0.html

Economy in U.S. Preserves Biggest Gain in Six Years (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Only a minor adjustment in GDP.

But look at the earnings report.

Is there any doubt why the stock market roared ahead last year?

Now we have to deal with rising interest rates.

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy expanded at a 5.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2009, and corporate profits climbed, setting the stage for gains in employment that may broaden and preserve the expansion.

The rise in gross domestic product, while smaller than the government's previous estimate issued last month, marked the best performance in six years, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Company earnings increased 8 percent, capping the biggest year-over-year gain in a quarter century.

"Profits are a leading indicator of the economy and suggest continued growth and likely job gains in the second quarter of this year," John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a note to clients after the report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a8CxLvnMYlY4

Ackman’s Greatest Short - MBIA - Bloomberg.com

The mortgage insurance companies were the canaries in this coal mine. MBIA, MGIC, and PMI.

To anyone who was watching, it was obvious that there were too many adjustable rate loans made to people with insufficient down payments, bad credit, and low income.

All that was necessary for the cave-in was a sustained increase in short-term interest rates. The idiot Greenspan provided the impetus when in 2004 he started raising Fed Funds from 1% to 5.25%.

By the time it was over, all the mortgage insurance companies were destroyed, as were Fannie and Freddie, the mortgage market was in ruins, CDS issuers were bankrupt, and the economy was collapsing.

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

"Our newest and largest [short] investment is on an extremely highly levered, yet AAA-rated financial institution, which we believe has inadequate reserves, undisclosed credit- quality problems, aggressive accounting and substantial unconsolidated indebtedness contained in off-balance-sheet special-purpose vehicles," he wrote. The position had the potential to generate a return of about five times the fund's total assets if it was successful.

Though little known outside of Wall Street circles in 2002, MBIA ranked as one of the five biggest financial institutions in the country in terms of outstanding credit exposure. It shared that distinction with Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and government-sponsored mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601108&sid=aLmOb9zzVZ9A

Using Psychology To Save You From Yourself : NPR

The city of Greensboro, N.C., has experimented with a program designed for teenage mothers. To prevent these teens from having another child, the city offered each of them $1 a day for every day they were not pregnant. It turns out that the psychological power of that small daily payment is huge. A single dollar a day was enough to push the rate of teen pregnancy down, saving all the incredible costs — human and financial — that go with teen parenting.

Cass Sunstein, President Obama's pick to head the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, was a vocal supporter of the program, because it was an economic policy that shaped itself around human psychology. Sunstein is just one of a number of high-level appointees now working in the Obama administration who favors this kind of approach.

All are devotees of behavioral economics — a school of economic thought greatly influenced by psychological research — which argues that the human animal is hard-wired to make errors when it comes to decision-making, and therefore people need a little "nudge" to make decisions that are in their own best interests.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=104803094

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

James B. Klein
Paterson Financial Services

WEBSITE: paterson.com
WEBLOG: paterson-financial-services.blogspot.com
NEWS WEBLOG: paterson-financial-services-news.blogspot.com

Odds Are, It's Wrong - Science News

Odds Are, It's Wrong
Science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics
By Tom Siegfried
March 27th, 2010; Vol.177 #7 (p. 26)

For better or for worse, science has long been married to mathematics. Generally it has been for the better. Especially since the days of Galileo and Newton, math has nurtured science. Rigorous mathematical methods have secured science's fidelity to fact and conferred a timeless reliability to its findings.

During the past century, though, a mutant form of math has deflected science's heart from the modes of calculation that had long served so faithfully. Science was seduced by statistics, the math rooted in the same principles that guarantee profits for Las Vegas casinos. Supposedly, the proper use of statistics makes relying on scientific results a safe bet. But in practice, widespread misuse of statistical methods makes science more like a crapshoot.

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/57091/title/Odds_Are,_Its_Wrong

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

James B. Klein
Paterson Financial Services

WEBSITE: paterson.com
WEBLOG: paterson-financial-services.blogspot.com
NEWS WEBLOG: paterson-financial-services-news.blogspot.com

Fed Gets Credit for Rescue - WSJ.com

Lesson one.

Money rules.

Lesson two.

Most economists are clueless.

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

But the Fed's interventions likely played a bigger role in pulling the economy out of its tailspin, economists said. In their paper, Messrs. Sinai and Edelstein estimated that the Fed's actions boosted GDP growth by 1.9 percentage points in 2009 and would add 3.3 points this year.

The survey respondents broadly agreed. When asked which government policies played the biggest role in resuscitating the U.S. economy, 25 respondents chose low interest rates and 13 said it was the central bank's purchases of Treasurys and mortgages. Eight cited the bank stress tests and related capital-raising by banks. Just three said the stimulus played the biggest role.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703625304575115674057260664.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

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