Using Psychology To Save You From Yourself : NPR

The city of Greensboro, N.C., has experimented with a program designed for teenage mothers. To prevent these teens from having another child, the city offered each of them $1 a day for every day they were not pregnant. It turns out that the psychological power of that small daily payment is huge. A single dollar a day was enough to push the rate of teen pregnancy down, saving all the incredible costs — human and financial — that go with teen parenting.

Cass Sunstein, President Obama's pick to head the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, was a vocal supporter of the program, because it was an economic policy that shaped itself around human psychology. Sunstein is just one of a number of high-level appointees now working in the Obama administration who favors this kind of approach.

All are devotees of behavioral economics — a school of economic thought greatly influenced by psychological research — which argues that the human animal is hard-wired to make errors when it comes to decision-making, and therefore people need a little "nudge" to make decisions that are in their own best interests.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=104803094

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

James B. Klein
Paterson Financial Services

WEBSITE: paterson.com
WEBLOG: paterson-financial-services.blogspot.com
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Odds Are, It's Wrong - Science News

Odds Are, It's Wrong
Science fails to face the shortcomings of statistics
By Tom Siegfried
March 27th, 2010; Vol.177 #7 (p. 26)

For better or for worse, science has long been married to mathematics. Generally it has been for the better. Especially since the days of Galileo and Newton, math has nurtured science. Rigorous mathematical methods have secured science's fidelity to fact and conferred a timeless reliability to its findings.

During the past century, though, a mutant form of math has deflected science's heart from the modes of calculation that had long served so faithfully. Science was seduced by statistics, the math rooted in the same principles that guarantee profits for Las Vegas casinos. Supposedly, the proper use of statistics makes relying on scientific results a safe bet. But in practice, widespread misuse of statistical methods makes science more like a crapshoot.

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/feature/id/57091/title/Odds_Are,_Its_Wrong

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

James B. Klein
Paterson Financial Services

WEBSITE: paterson.com
WEBLOG: paterson-financial-services.blogspot.com
NEWS WEBLOG: paterson-financial-services-news.blogspot.com

Fed Gets Credit for Rescue - WSJ.com

Lesson one.

Money rules.

Lesson two.

Most economists are clueless.

* * * * * J B K * * * * *

San Francisco

But the Fed's interventions likely played a bigger role in pulling the economy out of its tailspin, economists said. In their paper, Messrs. Sinai and Edelstein estimated that the Fed's actions boosted GDP growth by 1.9 percentage points in 2009 and would add 3.3 points this year.

The survey respondents broadly agreed. When asked which government policies played the biggest role in resuscitating the U.S. economy, 25 respondents chose low interest rates and 13 said it was the central bank's purchases of Treasurys and mortgages. Eight cited the bank stress tests and related capital-raising by banks. Just three said the stimulus played the biggest role.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703625304575115674057260664.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection